Riley Loses His Cool and England Falls Short

Temperature Rising

Pat Riley did a press conference where he seemed to be appealing to Lebron James not to leave the Heat.  He made some really good points about teams not winning every year, but instead over long stretches.  He made this point to put it in Lebron's ear that he shouldn't bolt.

That has me thinking Lebron is seriously thinking about leaving.  If he were to leave I think he's probably headed back to Cleveland.  The team finally has a big upside and him returning as a proven winner will get any talent he needs to join him over the next few years.  Can he get over the Dan Gilbert thing?  I think so.  He knows he hurt them bad and words are just words.

I think the issue is probably Wade wanting to just opt in and play out the final two years of the his contract for the big money.  Riley probably has no issue with that as he owes a lot to Wade, no doubt.  Bosh probably will opt back in that case as well.  Why would he restructure his deal if there is major uncertainty past the next two seasons.

This all puts Lebron in a bad spot.  Remember the Heat don't have to win titles to be financially secure.  In truth they just need to keep Lebron.  He's the biggest draw in the business.  I'm thinking Lebron is afraid to get trapped on a declining team that will struggle to find the cap space necessary to compete.  So I think he opts in for the final year, but it's going to be a bumpy ride, which will cause an ugly break up.

Heat fans should be alarmed by two things.  Back in February Lebron said he was for sure at least opting in.  After a crushing defeat in the Finals he could have uplifted everyone by saying I'm staying and we will get back to the Finals next year.  He didn't do that.  Instead he chose his words carefully.  This has to be because he is strongly considering leaving and he's afraid to put himself out there.  It was kind of a shady move based on his earlier comments.

The second thing is if Pat Riley was confident Lebron was coming back he would have at least insinuated that Lebron would be back in the fold next season.  He didn't do that and instead he appealed to him with some reasonable logic about the NBA.  It's concerning that things have gotten to this point.  It makes me wonder if Lebron realizes a wasted season in Cleveland building the a team is better than one in Miami declining with a team.

As far as destinations it's 100% clear to me that Cleveland is the only place for Lebron.  They have a talented group and the #1 pick.  Even with the prospective #1 now being injured the draft is so deep that might be a blessing.  Cleveland can make a lot of moves.  I also think Lebron knows he can't go back to the Cavs when he is past his prime.  Now would be a good time or perhaps the best possible time.

It gives assurances to those players currently on the team that he will be there and speeds up their development.  Let's also not forget how it will repair his image.  It's the prodigal son returning home story.  No one will beat up on Lebron for coming home.

For all the commentary about staying in the East and Miami still being better than everyone else let's not forget that if Lebron leaves Miami drops major notches.  Also, the Bulls and Pacers are probably the two challenges regardless of where Lebron goes.

I also think people are a little too hard on the difficulty of the West.  Sure the teams are better, but I still don't think beyond the Spurs next year any team is really that big of a powerhouse.  I feel strongly that OKC, Golden State, and the Clippers are not championship built teams.  I also feel that the Lakers are far from being contenders again and Houston is built on a shaky foundation.

So if Lebron were to swerve us all and go West I don't think how tough the league is should really be viewed as a reason not too.  That being said I think the only team he could really go to is the Lakers, but Kobe just choked the life out of that chance with his two year extension and shaky healthy situation.  I don't think Lebron would really chance that.  He would also take endless grief again for teaming up with a major superstar, again.

One last point on the Riley news conference was his claim that the media is just too hard on the Heat.  I know he is being a company man with that line of defense, but they brought it on themselves.  The Decision itself and the 2010 interview tour that the Big Three pulled off was a shame to appease everyone from thinking this wasn't a plan all along.  That pissed people off.

Then the kick off party disrespecting everyone and talking about winning 7 titles also didn't sit well with a lot of people.  So when people come down hard on the Heat Riley should accept that it's partially his own fault.  Begging the media for forgiveness without apologizing for that whole situation first is a little arrogant in itself.
The fun part about this entire situation is that due to the NBA's rules about opting out this whole situation will be forced to play out rather quickly.  So we don't have to wait long for the domino's to start falling.

England Falls Short

England fell to Uruguay 2-1 in an absolute thriller.  The Premier League player of the Year Luis Suarez was their undoing.  England had their chances, but just like with Italy it seemed they were chasing the game a bit.

If Italy win today England still have a chance to move on.  It's not a great chance, but it's still a chance.  This World Cup is not so much about the failings of England or their manager.  It's really just some tough luck.  They had to open with their strongest opponent and then play their second strongest.

I think maybe if they had opened with Costa Rica they could have built some confidence.  They just plan got foiled by the luck of the draw.  Beyond the brutal group and scheduling it didn't help that their first game was in the jungle.  That's a preview of the World Cup in Qatar even if playing in the winter.

England aren't as bad as many will think they are.  They are just not as good as everyone wants them to be.  Expectations and pressure have always seem to be the undoing of the English.  They are so hyper critical of their players and coaches that it's a wonder they qualify for the tournament at all.

Wayne Rooney caught a lot of grief for not having scored a World Cup goal until yesterday, but let me remind you he's only 1 behind Messi in career tallies now.  I have not seen a lack of effort from him in either match, if anything it's been the opposite.  He's left it out on the pitch.

In truth the International football scene is dominated by teams that are basically a core of a top club in their country.  Italy is Juventus light.  Germany is Bayern Munich light.  Spain has been Barcelona light up until their coach lost his mind and started tinkering too much.  England have more Liverpool players than I can remember, but important pieces to the puzzle just aren't their.  The core of the team is not a group that plays together all that often.

So unless you have the one other factor that can get you by in the World Cup, a red hot stirker, you are likely to have marginal results in these micro tournaments.  If English fans could ever understand those factors maybe they would cut their team some slack.

This is where I harken back to my belief that the international schedule should be restructured.  Instead of games being scattered about the calender FIFA should focus on a 2 and 1/2 month stretch form May to July. If you end the European season in late April because you clip out the international breaks then you can allow teams to play together for a good month or so before starting a tournament like the World Cup.

The football has not been bad by any stretch, but if teams had some real time together to gel there's no telling how good it could be.  You would also decrease the advantage many countries have with their club teams as previously stated.  Food for thought, but not likely to happen.

Thoughts on the Heat and Spain Falls Hard

The Spurs celebrated their title yesterday with their victory parade.   They are a team with very few questions going into next year as it appears all the key parts will be back.  Miami on the other hand are in pieces.

The 2010 decision was hard to execute for Lebron and Co.  It really was draining on them, but going forward this summer is a way more complex matter.  It may not get the media hoopala and many figure the team will stay together for at least one more season, but there are some tricky situations to get around.

I think the Heat will ultimately stay together one more year with everyone opting in.  The Heat will gamble on Wade and Bosh being a little better than everyone gives them credit for.  The key for the Heat and many NBA teams will be learning a lesson from the Spurs.  That lesson is play your guys in the regular season less minutes.

Not less games, but fewer minutes.  This does two things.  Keeps your team fresh for the playoffs and develops the rest of your roster.  The NBA mentality of playing your best guys for the max minutes every game is foolish.  This obviously keeps guys who need minutes on the bench and useless when playoff time comes.

The Bulls have gone deep into their bench due to injuries and have developed guys that otherwise have not really made a mark in the NBA.  While I will say they tend to play certain guys too much it shows that depth can be tapped with experience around a core of guys like Noah to help progress talent.

The Heat should rest Wade, but not as much as they did game wise, but how about just fewer minutes.  How about Wade off the bench as a sixth man.  How about not so many minutes for Lebron.  This might make winning the #1 seed hard, but a fresh Heat team with some confident bench players is a scary thought.

Spain has Fallen

My alternative view on popular belief that Spain has been figured out or Spain is old, is that Del Bosque picked a really bad 11 twice and chose the wrong 23.  I would have sold out and used more Barcelona players for the second game, but instead he took Xavi out.  That was a critically poor decision.

I'm still wondering how he thought Koke and Cazola were going to bring him back.  His love affair with the corpse Fernando Torres boggles the mind. I'm still waiting for David Villa to get a start or be subbed in. So I pin 90% of the blame on the coach.  He has the resume for some latitude, but look at Euro 2012 and watch Spain struggle to score goals.  Wonder why natural strikers are left out and David Silva is being played upfront.

Everything has to be questioned, but I am firm in the belief that Chile is good, but not better than Spain.  You could take away two things from yesterday after Holland beat Australia.  One Holland is not that good, two Spain are real mess.  Chile picked the bones yesterday.

The style is not found out.  It's just not being played correctly.  Chile pressed the midfield and backline.  By doing so they limited possession stayed positive.  This forced the turnover that lead to that first goal.  When Spain play with that front three in the shape they are in they are toothless.  When you have no fear of their front three you can press the midfield and cause havoc.  It's not about having a bunch of mid fielders out their, but a dangerous strike team supported by a strong midfield.

Spain could have been better upfront if they used their true strikers left on the bench and left at home.  That's the coach's fault.  It's not the end of the Golden Age of Spain.  Look no further than the talent at the three top club and realize this is a bump.  The Del Bosque Era needs to end for Spain.  If that happens I think you will see the rewards at Euro 2016.